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Shipping: Trends, Risks, Caution

Risk profiling is becoming more important to port state control inspections, says PaSea

Port State Control inspections are increasingly focusing on the risk profile of the ship under inspection with inspectors singling out the performance of the ship manager and the flag state recognised organisation (RO) as major factors to concentrate on.

Petros Achtypis, Chief Executive Officer of Cyprus-based Prevention at Sea (PaSea), said PSC inspectors were changing the way they inspected ships with greater emphasis being placed on a vessel’s risk profile.


BIMCO: caution required in 2018
08 January 2018 11:45

According to BIMCO, 2017 was a year of change. Much of it for the better, but a cautious approach is still needed for 2018 to maintain the progress already achieved.

Economic growth has increased in Europe, Asia and the Americas since mid-2016, and the IMF now expects the global GDP growth rate to raise slightly in 2018 to reach 3.7%, up from 3.6% in 2017.

In 2018, the dry bulk sector is likely to improve the fundamental market balance further, if operational speeds do not increase. For the container shipping sector, the improvement in 2017 will carry on into 2018, where fleet growth rate seems to match demand growth, and as a result no big freight rate changes are expected to lift earnings. For oil tankers, there is a potential upside in low fleet growth for both crude oil and oil product tankers. The growth in demand - coming from increased oil consumption and a return of more price arbitrage-driven trading activity - depends on a better-balanced oil market. BIMCO expects that the world’s oil demand will only marginally outstrip the world’s oil supply, and this will be a negative factor for the oil tanker market.

China is at the centre of shipping activity. Being the one driver of dry bulk shipping demand growth, China has also taken a giant leap in hiking crude oil import levels during 2017. By introducing robotics into its enormous manufacturing sector, China aims to remain the world’s top exporter of containerised goods too. There is a lot of competition in that field, and maritime supply chains will change a lot over the coming years.

The shipping industry has adapted quite well to a lower level of demand growth over the past couple of years. The next challenge is to understand that this is as good as it gets, and to avoid wishful thinking that demand levels will increase significantly – as that will not happen. The biggest risks to the forecast remain on the downside, meaning that fleet could grow too much or demand too little.


5 Shipping Trends We Might See In 2018
Jan. 8, 2018 9:05 AM ET|


2017 saw some interesting developments, a few of which came as a surprise.

2018 will likely see some interesting themes emerge.

Here I dust off my crystal ball and make some predictions.