Venezuela impact on tanker markets may be limited in the near-term

Venezuela impact on tanker markets may be limited in the near-term
Gary Howard January 5, 2026 https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/venezuela-impact-on-tanker-mar...

Crude grades, infrastructure neglect, and Russia long-haul trades dampen Venezuela raid freight market ripples.

Potential ramifications for tanker markets after the US attack on Venezuela and abduction of its president Nicolás Maduro may be more limited than expected, one analyst claims, as forecasters speculate on potential operational changes in Venezuela’s oil sector and attempt to factor in regional and global complexities.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, but as Signal Ocean put it “reserves are not a freight variable. Tanker demand responds to barrels produced, exported, and moved, not to in-ground resource estimates.”

The quality and grade of Venezuela’s high-sulphur, heavy, and extra-heavy crude oil dictate potential destinations for its export, said Signal Ocean, typically favouring advanced refineries in the Atlantic basin. Scope for near-term global market impact from demand changes there is limited. Feeding US refiners with Venezuelan crude would require tanker shipments to the US Gulf; the researchers expect limited direct displacement of current Canadian and Mexican heavy crude feedstocks, which arrive by pipeline.

There are questions over the fate of some 700,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan Merey crude currently exported at a discount to China, and a shift towards more Atlantic Basin trading could shorten voyages, bring higher volumes, and flat or slightly elevated tonne-mile demand.

Researchers identified Aframaxes on Caribbean-US Gulf routes as a potential beneficiary in the short-term, should increased risk be priced in to freight rates.

“Over the longer term, with respect to tanker demand, even if Venezuelan barrels are pulled toward the US Gulf, supporting Aframax and Panamax employment, oil displaced from US refineries, such as Canadian or Mexican crude, would still need to be exported overseas. As a result, a reduction in tonne-mile demand should not be assumed at this stage, and any firm prediction would be premature,” said Signal Ocean.

An immediate threat from the US attack is a shock drop in Venezuela’s crude output should uncertainty lead to lower loadings. State oil producer Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has reportedly already moved to shut down oilfields as stockpiles in storage increase. Reuters reported around a dozen crude tankers leaving Venezuela’s waters over the course of the weekend, ships that would usually carry cargo to China. As well as reducing export options, the event raises questions as to where those parallel fleet vessels will seek employment after escaping the US blockade.
Oil prices

After initial swings, oil prices have held broadly stable despite the use of force against a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In a blog post, ING head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson said the short-term implications for oil prices depend on the transition of power within Venezuela. A clean transition could lead to downward pressure on oil prices should the US lift its blockade on parallel fleet tankers serving Venezuela, while any snarls in the handover of power puts the country's around 900,000 barrels per day of supply at risk.

“While losing this supply would provide some upside to our current forecasts, a well-supplied market means the upside is likely limited. In addition, some supply losses would have already been priced in, given that we saw Venezuelan oil exports coming under pressure in December with the US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela,” said Patterson.

The seizure by US forces of loaded VLCCs in Venezuelan waters was another clear sign of escalating tensions and potential disruption to come.

ING has stuck to its 2026 oil market forecast of Brent averaging $57/bbl over the year.
Long-term production

Settling oil prices and a jump in US energy company's stocks in part reflect the scale of investment necessary for Venezuela to move the dial on global oil supply.

ING’s Patterson said that Venezuela’s oil infrastructure needs significant investment from international oil companies after years of neglect in order to reverse its output freefall from 3m bpd in the early 2000s to 0.9m bpd today.

“This is easier said than done, given that both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips had their assets in Venezuela expropriated back in 2007. In fact, both companies were awarded damages by international courts, which Venezuela has failed to pay,” said Patterson.

International courts may be a deterrent from investing in Venezuela’s oil industry as the legality of the US operation is scrutinised. “It is difficult to conceive of possible legal justifications for transporting Maduro to the US, or for the attacks,” Chatham House programme director, international law programme, Professor Marc Weller wrote in a blog post.

Any investment in Venezuela’s oil industry will be under further scrutiny due to the current global oil market reality of oversupply and the inherent risk of infrastructure investments with long lead times.

“Even over the medium term, if current Venezuelan volumes of around 1m bpd were to flow freely to the market, this would increase optionality for buyers and is likely to exert additional downward pressure on prices,” said Signal Ocean.

The company pointed to Russia as a greater influence on current market dynamics, generating tonne mile demand as Western sanctions force Russian exports to destinations further afield such as China and India.

"Under current conditions, tanker demand is shaped primarily by existing trade structures and price signals rather than by reserve potential or long-term development ambitions. Russia’s long-haul export orientation continues to underpin global tonne-mile demand. At the same time, Venezuela’s impact remains concentrated in route allocation rather than scale, limiting its ability to alter overall freight demand materially," Signal Ocean concluded.