Maritime CEO Forum: Shipping’s wartime boom tests discipline

Maritime CEO Forum: Shipping’s wartime boom tests discipline
October 28, 2026 https://splash247.com/maritime-ceo-forum-shippings-wartime-boom-tests-di...

Shipping may be enjoying one of its strongest booms in decades, but the extraordinary profits generated by geopolitical turmoil are raising difficult questions about risk, investment and what happens when the wars end, delegates at yesterday’s Maritime CEO Forum in Monaco heard.

Opening the event at the Yacht Club de Monaco, Splash editor Sam Chambers asked whether today’s riches were encouraging owners to repeat the mistakes of past cycles.

Burak Cetinok, head of research at Arrow, described the rally as unusually broad across freight, vessel values and sale-and-purchase activity. VLCC earnings this month were 14 times their 10-year average, he calculated, with the weekly multiple approaching 20. The latest peak was four times that of 2007-08.

Despite the eye-watering numbers, Cetinok saw no immediate sell signal in conventional shipping. His biggest concern was fresh capacity: Arrow’s analysis suggested that once an orderbook reaches roughly 25% of the existing fleet, earnings have historically tended to fall within 24 to 36 months.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, chief executive of DHT Holdings, was more sanguine about the VLCC orderbook. By the end of 2029, he said, almost half the fleet would be over 15 years old and a quarter over 20, creating considerable replacement demand. With tanker owners generally carrying much less debt than before the 2008 crash, he argued, the industry was also more resilient.

For DHT, avoiding boom-time exuberance meant sticking to internal “traffic lights” governing investment and risk, even when high spot rates made restraint look costly.

Illustrating the desperation to secure oil supplies, Harfjeld described a refinery customer accepting a voyage 40 days longer, at a 50% higher freight rate, to avoid heightened Red Sea risks.

Gus Majed, founder and group chief executive of Paratus, said the surge in tanker earnings was a rational response to the breakdown of established energy routes and refining markets. But the frequency of attacks was making returns less attractive after adjusting for risk.

“Returns are starting to compress on a risk-adjusted basis,” he said, warning that governments and companies were reassessing energy security and strategic stockpiles. A flattening between spot and forward freight rates would be one sign that the boom was losing momentum.

René Kofod-Olsen, chief executive of V.Group, warned that record earnings should not obscure operational vulnerabilities. Some owners were still managing fleets of “10, 20, 30 ships on WhatsApp and the occasional e-mail”, he said, while cyberattacks on vessels and offices underscored the need for investment in systems and training. Above all, he urged owners not to treat seafarers and technical management as commodities.

From the floor, Andy Dacy of JP Morgan Asset Management cautioned against chasing ships at the top of the market and suggested public and private owners might react differently when valuations turned.

Another delegate, Lars-Christian Svensen, who heads Bruton, Himalaya Shipping and OMC Tankers, countered that flexibility mattered more than identifying as a spot or long-term player. Owners needed to be nimble and prepared to sell into strength.